The late Ali Khamenei's son is purportedly in charge, but no one has seen him. Iran's "president" makes a statement; the military corrects him. Has the regime already toppled?

Over a month ago, the U.S. went to war with Iran.

While some predicted the conflict would be winding down by now, others worried it wouldn’t be so easy. It’s true: Taking out former Supreme leader of Iran Ali Khamenei was nothing like the short incursion the U.S. used to capture and extradite Venezuelan dictator Nicholas Maduro.

Still, some voices in Washington insist that the conflict with Iran has already achieved its major goals: Iran’s nuclear program is certainly decimated, if not destroyed completely. 

And the former ruler was killed during the early days of the conflict. Most of his lieutenants and top officials were killed as well in the weeks that followed. With so many former officials dead or missing in action, some are wondering if a regime change hasn’t already been achieved.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth certainly seems to think so.

“American firepower is only increasing; Iran’s decreasing,” Sec. Hegseth told the press this week. “We have more and more options and they have less. Just one month in, only one month, we set the terms. The upcoming days will be decisive. Iran knows that and there’s almost nothing they can militarily do about it.”

“Yes, they will still shoot some missiles, but we will shoot them down,” added Hegseth. “Of note, the last 24 hours saw the lowest number of enemy missiles and drones fired by Iran. They will go underground, but we will find them. We recently destroyed another one of their command bunkers. Leaders forced to flee. No water, no power, no oxygen, no command and control. Their faith in their caves is diminishing.”

“But if Iran is wise, they will cut a deal,” he suggested. “President Trump doesn’t bluff, and he does not back down. You can ask Khamenei about that. The new Iranian regime should know that by now. This new regime, because regime change has occurred, should be wiser than the last.”

“President Trump will make a deal,” promised the Defense Secretary. “He is willing, and the terms of the deal are known to them. If Iran is not willing, then the United States War Department will continue with even more intensity.”

Is he right?

It’s true that the Islamic Republic that existed under Ali Khamenei was built around one man’s authority, one man’s balancing act, one man’s ability to keep the clerics, the Guards, and the political class moving in the same direction. That man is dead. His death plunged the system into its most dangerous crisis since 1979 and shattered the old order he held together.

And what replaced it? Not stability. Not confidence. Not even visible command.

Mojtaba Khamenei, the son installed to succeed him, is reportedly still in Iran, but he has not appeared in public. News outlets report that he is avoiding public appearances altogether. A regime that wants to project continuity does not hide its new supreme leader unless continuity itself is already in doubt.

Then there is the humiliation of President Masoud Pezeshkian. He made conciliatory remarks toward Gulf states, only to be publicly pushed back by hardliners and effectively forced into retreat. 

That is why the strongest case for “regime change already happened” is not that Iran has become freer. It is almost the opposite. The clerical republic has curdled into something narrower, harsher, and more openly military. 

So yes: the old regime may already be gone. What remains is its wounded, more dangerous shell.

(Contributing writer, Brooke Bell)